The NFL bye week is really a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough awareness of. In the event you consider your novice sports bettor, and you spot the type of betting line which has you quickly heading to Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to find out if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice if that team’s opponent is coming off a bye. For people advanced sports bettors being affected by the bye week, I’ll cover some advanced level research and insights regarding the bye in this post. Before getting to this, I’ll address some general points for any individual unclear such a bye week is, or on which weeks teams have byes.
As you may probably know, sbo is made up of each team playing 16 games. Back 1990, the league changed to some 17 week season to be able to profit more from television advertising. This left each team having a single week off sooner or later in the season termed as a bye week. The bye week had been random spanning over the entire season, but also in 2004 to generate a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it operates now is bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll must pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, while they have the main benefit of more time to relax, get healthy, practice and prepare.
Basically we won’t include this in our analysis, an additional area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season there exists a single Thursday night game, as well as on Thanksgiving the two main additional Thursday day games. Because of this on Thursday, teams are frequently playing on short rest, which is truly the case for teams; it is therefore not something to worry about. Where it might be an issue is the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and can achieve a similar benefit to the main one they have from the bye week. Be certain when creating bets about the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming off of the bye, as well as to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Considering this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a subject which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t get into it in a lot more detail than to make a single statement after which support it. That statement: the more effective a team is, the more they take advantage of the bye week. This is simply not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis how the best odds makers are familiar with. To provide you with a small clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is really a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams benefit from the bye week, so how much they benefit is proportional to how good of any team they are.
If the above statement are at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some fundamental stats regarding how well teams coming off of the bye week have fared that may help you know the lines just a little better.
Over the four most current seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one team is on its way away from the bye, the group coming off the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re contemplating betting teams coming off the bye because the past four years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article about the current betting market. A method such as that might been employed by in 2006; but, much more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. Simply because today NFL betting lines are a lot more efficient, and the market will almost certainly correct itself.
The regular ATS details are nice, but it really doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After accomplishing this, an even more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming off of the bye week that are favored possess a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off the bye have a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is quite small, but 15-1-2 against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To talk about a remote stat from an article I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (more than a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To return to and obtain more accurate 4 year numbers for all those favorites coming from the bye, you can find 9 games missing in the 110 sample size I used. This is because 9 times since 2007 there are games where both teams were coming away from the bye. (32×4=128), I got the 110 sample size because 18 in the byes were not connected to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye greater than the market is providing them with credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the highway inside the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, and several might consider this “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when dating back much beyond 2007. If we’re likely to really see this detailed, though, we should have a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s that are part of the spread.